Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 30, 2026
On the Sep 30, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 6 of 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 6 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 45 | 45 | ✓ | 84%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 20 | 20 | ✓ | 90%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 61%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 12 | 12 | ✗ | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
46 matches for “Riot”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…have got the guy at the source. One of the co-founders of Riot Games, Mark Merrill, has joined us today for, I think, a pretty…
…guest this week. We are joined by Mark Merrill, the co-founder of Riot Games, and I was going to attempt to read off your other…
…the leadership team and, you know, start a whole new chapter of Riot to really get back to our fundamentals that really built the place…
…sort of an interesting thing where, you know, essentially Dylan Jadeja, our Riot CEO, who's our former CFO, and I essentially sort of co-lead the…
…joining first off thank you we all have a long history with riot games and league of legends and it's all part of our careers…
Where the listed words were said
…have been told is that a long time ago, Tencent, who is this giant Chinese gaming company that is a majority owner of Riot Games.
…trying to do and made tons of mistakes, of course, but we're fortunate enough to build League of Legends after raising some money from VCs.
a nascent market in China. And obviously they're massive in Japan, they're massive all over the world, magic and all this. Do we think that…
know anything, all of a sudden out of the blue comes this massive Chinese company. At the time, they're like 50 billion, which is still…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-30:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-30:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP