Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 30, 2026
On the Sep 30, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 6 of 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 6 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 45 | 45 | ✓ | 84%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 20 | 20 | ✓ | 90%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 61%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 12 | 12 | ✗ | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
2 matches for “Left”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
left for a while, came back. Can you just explain like what you do at the company now and like what led up to that?…
…buy the website from him, you know, and said, oh, my grandma left me some money, and so here's 25 grand, let me go buy…
Where the listed words were said
…have been told is that a long time ago, Tencent, who is this giant Chinese gaming company that is a majority owner of Riot Games.
…trying to do and made tons of mistakes, of course, but we're fortunate enough to build League of Legends after raising some money from VCs.
a nascent market in China. And obviously they're massive in Japan, they're massive all over the world, magic and all this. Do we think that…
know anything, all of a sudden out of the blue comes this massive Chinese company. At the time, they're like 50 billion, which is still…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-30:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-30:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP