Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 30, 2026
On the Sep 30, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 6 of 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 6 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 45 | 45 | ✓ | 84%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 20 | 20 | ✓ | 90%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 61%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 12 | 12 | ✗ | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
8 matches for “Korea”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
we who knows what this thing's gonna happen but this is pre-korea pre-china pre-esports pre all sorts of stuff right and um but brandon and…
…is right and whatever their context is like the league player in korea has a bit of a different experience than in china or in…
…laws. Right. Like we need a Korean social security number to make a league account in Korea. Right. Or a vowel account or whatnot. Right.
Well, it does in Korea, right? For us with LCK and whatnot and other things. And as the global distribution market for content continues to…
…of tv and or distribution broadcast gap relative to say what's happened in china or korea um you know currently but that doesn't mean that
Where the listed words were said
…have been told is that a long time ago, Tencent, who is this giant Chinese gaming company that is a majority owner of Riot Games.
…trying to do and made tons of mistakes, of course, but we're fortunate enough to build League of Legends after raising some money from VCs.
a nascent market in China. And obviously they're massive in Japan, they're massive all over the world, magic and all this. Do we think that…
know anything, all of a sudden out of the blue comes this massive Chinese company. At the time, they're like 50 billion, which is still…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-30:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-30:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP