Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 23, 2026
On the Sep 23, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 7 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 65 | 65 | ✓ | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 37 | 37 | ✓ | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 91%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 89%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 59%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 59%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
13 matches for “Money”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…he says, Hey, uh, it's almost October 1st. I'm a lot of money every day pretty soon. If you, so October 1st is the point…
…which is massive. It's a huge amount of debt, huge amount of money. Um, anyway, Larry Elson does a Hail Mary and he says, if…
…is with fucking this gigantically rich billionaire, Larry Ellison, at every step of this process, using his political connections and money to push through this.
…And if you look into that, it doesn't mean they actually have to make 30 films, which require them to spend a lot of money.
…year? They're not going to do that because they want to make money. But if they just didn't do it, the punishment is like, they…
Where the listed words were said
…House's crackdown on the free press. If you pull this up, Donald Trump in the past few days banned CNN, MSNOW, and Politico from the…
…took notes? Anyone? With Monday Notetaker, the meeting ends and the plan already exists. Action items, owners, deadlines. Go to monday.com, the AI workspace platform.
…brought to you by Constellation. Doug, you know how Aiden's always saying climate change is a Chinese hoax? Yeah, he does say that a lot.
…Media. He's become a gigantic media titan, all of his dad's tech money and political connections. And I just think that's awesome. Yeah, me too.…
And they most likely lean blue. Yeah. You know what I thought was interesting from this? Trump voted mail-in ballot, just to be clear. That's…
…upcoming trip right where like i'm having to figure out hotels for japan and whatnot and to be able to say here all the parameters…
…We'll do the facts first. So if you pull this up, Perry, these 12 states, I colored them in red, but they are blue states.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-23:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-23:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP