Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 23, 2026
On the Sep 23, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 7 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 65 | 65 | ✓ | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 37 | 37 | ✓ | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 91%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 89%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 59%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 59%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
12 matches for “Government”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…ridiculous $8 million subscription and all time record directly from the United States government under crooked Joe Biden in order to keep them quote alive.
…But after this executive order, the Department of Homeland Security, the federal government would have a voter list and send that to states and say…
…USPS like a full list and the USPS has to verify it and only mail the ballots that they've checked off with the federal government.
…shift it to kind of this like approval system from the federal government so trump launched this in march the way it's supposed to work…
So it was a 6-2 ruling, and it said the government is unlikely to win on the merits. And then Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote that…
Where the listed words were said
…House's crackdown on the free press. If you pull this up, Donald Trump in the past few days banned CNN, MSNOW, and Politico from the…
…took notes? Anyone? With Monday Notetaker, the meeting ends and the plan already exists. Action items, owners, deadlines. Go to monday.com, the AI workspace platform.
…brought to you by Constellation. Doug, you know how Aiden's always saying climate change is a Chinese hoax? Yeah, he does say that a lot.
…he says, Hey, uh, it's almost October 1st. I'm a lot of money every day pretty soon. If you, so October 1st is the point…
And they most likely lean blue. Yeah. You know what I thought was interesting from this? Trump voted mail-in ballot, just to be clear. That's…
…upcoming trip right where like i'm having to figure out hotels for japan and whatnot and to be able to say here all the parameters…
…We'll do the facts first. So if you pull this up, Perry, these 12 states, I colored them in red, but they are blue states.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-23:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-23:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP