Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 16, 2026

Name: Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 16, 2026
Start: 2026-09-16

Wed, Sep 16EpisodeMachine transcriptLemonade Stand

On the Sep 16, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 3 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 15:44 UTC

Markets

8 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8

Polymarket: anyone Polymarket

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
Word	Result	Our count	All speakers	Agrees	Probability	Market
Money	Yes	60	60	✓	88%n=9 from settlement history	–
Red	Yes	6	6	✓	63%n=12 from settlement history	–
Japan	Yes	1	1	✓	54%n=2 from settlement history	–
AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times	No	1	1	✓	65%n=4 from settlement history	–
China / Chinese	No	0	0	✓	90%n=11 from settlement history	–
Trump 10+ times	No	0	0	✓	65%n=4 from settlement history	–
Blue	No	0	0	✓	56%n=12 from settlement history	–
Experimental	No	0	0	✓	27%n=4 from settlement history	–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

quotes of at most 25 words

Machine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.

Machine-attributed. Speaker turns are labelled by a model, not the publisher.

1 match for “Prediction”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.

Speaker not labelled18:25

…run out of money or they run out of enthusiasm to finish last. And you know already predictions, so you need to do something different.

Where the listed words were said

Speaker not labelled“Money” · 5:36

…Because, you know, the United States, I live here 20 years, so I know how it works here. It just works if everybody makes money.

Speaker not labelled“Red” · 5:55

…the bottom end, there needs to be a black figure, not a red one, you know? And I think Bernie never got that one across,…

Speaker not labelled“Japan” · 49:05

…you can see the front wheel lifting. This is like a Shinkansen in Japan, but you just have no windshield, and you're on a bike.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-16:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-16:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP