Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 16, 2026
On the Sep 16, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 3 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money | Yes | 60 | 60 | ✓ | 88%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 63%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 90%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
60 matches for “Money”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Because, you know, the United States, I live here 20 years, so I know how it works here. It just works if everybody makes money.
because otherwise we run out of money. because if F1 doesn't race, there's no income. Wait, when did they say this? After the show or…
…we, I'm not more intelligent than these people because they were good people. And for sure, we have no money because we had less money.
…went to see Stefano and said, Hey, Stefan, if I find investment money from somebody, would you help me to put this team together if…
…you have to do yourself. Okay. Because that saves you a lot of money, a lot of time, and you've got some aspect of safety.
Where the listed words were said
…that if you try to do something like this yourself, you spend a lot of money just to be as good as the worst team.
…the bottom end, there needs to be a black figure, not a red one, you know? And I think Bernie never got that one across,…
…you can see the front wheel lifting. This is like a Shinkansen in Japan, but you just have no windshield, and you're on a bike.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-16:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-16:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP