Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 16, 2026
On the Sep 16, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 3 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money | Yes | 60 | 60 | ✓ | 88%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 63%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 90%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
2 matches for “Government”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…In business, that's what it has to be. I mean, you cannot have somebody, you know, just a government paying because they want to pay.
…because you guys, you're young, and you started maybe watching F1 with this show, but before this, with the old government, this was a no-no.
Where the listed words were said
because otherwise we run out of money. because if F1 doesn't race, there's no income. Wait, when did they say this? After the show or…
…the results over the last however many years, it's pretty much still Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, like at the top of these standings and McLaren,…
…you can see the front wheel lifting. This is like a Shinkansen in Japan, but you just have no windshield, and you're on a bike.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-16:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-16:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP