Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 9, 2026
On the Sep 9, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 7 of 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 7 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 38 | 38 | ✓ | 89%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 36 | 36 | ✓ | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 30 | 30 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blue | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 54%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Red | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
23 matches for “Texas”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…is pretty goofy but it's all real however let's go over to Texas a little bit goofy I think we're just going to open this…
…a midterm convention. So they're having a gigantic Republican midterm convention in Texas. Now, normally these conventions exist for a couple of purposes, which is…
Like they have to fly out to Texas to be at this thing. And, you know, as we may have mentioned last week, some of…
…was unlocked. I want to mention the race. The Paxton-Talerico race in Texas is probably, I don't know. It's tough to say, but it may…
…did look into it more today. Man, the math is so bad for him. All Republican standard ballot. I'm sorry, all standard ballots in Texas.
Where the listed words were said
I had the exact same feel. You talked about Chinese micro dramas recently on this show. Yeah. My team and I did a deeper dive…
…with connected payment account required. See Experian.com for details. Experian. All right. I have been just overwhelmed by all this stuff I hear about AI.
…threatened to kill police officers. Judges made bomb threats and did harassment campaigns and tried to blackmail them for money to get them to stop.
…in the show a couple times, a country like the US, or Japan, or the UK, or the eurozone really they can't actually default because…
…being as bad as he is, it's still such an uphill battle for this race. Maybe Blue Texas in the future with 20 more years.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP