Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 9, 2026
On the Sep 9, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 7 of 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 7 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 38 | 38 | ✓ | 89%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 36 | 36 | ✓ | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 30 | 30 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blue | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 54%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Red | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
5 matches for “Japan”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…in the show a couple times, a country like the US, or Japan, or the UK, or the eurozone really they can't actually default because…
…because maybe you can find it. Every fucking country in Europe, America, Japan, the yields are rising, the borrowing costs going up, Switzerland, flat and…
…don't know if you showed the graph, but highest since 1996 in Japan, highest since 2008 in the UK, borrowing costs are a big problem…
…score in line with the strongest east asian countries like singapore and japan and korea and china so our best people are as smart as…
our national average is, is, is brought down. Uh, Japan was top 10 across all three subjects. They did very well. South Korea, Taiwan. I…
Where the listed words were said
I had the exact same feel. You talked about Chinese micro dramas recently on this show. Yeah. My team and I did a deeper dive…
…with connected payment account required. See Experian.com for details. Experian. All right. I have been just overwhelmed by all this stuff I hear about AI.
…threatened to kill police officers. Judges made bomb threats and did harassment campaigns and tried to blackmail them for money to get them to stop.
…to cover in Texas as we know the James Tallarico, Ken Paxton blue Texas possible big senator waste is coming up but as part of…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP