Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 9, 2026
On the Sep 9, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 7 of 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 7 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 38 | 38 | ✓ | 89%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 36 | 36 | ✓ | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 30 | 30 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blue | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 54%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Red | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
5 matches for “IPO”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
Especially as OpenAI prepares for its massive IPO. Anthropic, same thing. Both have them coming up. They're a very big deal. There's a lot of…
…doesn't change much on my thoughts on the financial reality of these IPOs. I can talk about the Anthropic one, which is coming up, $2…
…OpenAI, and honestly, NVIDIA, even though they're fine, to once these companies IPO and they're listed, to be listed as investment grade, which is above…
…talking for a lot. I want to, yeah. Can you remind me, because wasn't there, there was a big pushback on XAI's or SpaceX's IPO.
And you said $2 trillion, the expected market cap of Anthropics IPO. I thought that was an interesting number because $2 trillion is the amount…
Where the listed words were said
I had the exact same feel. You talked about Chinese micro dramas recently on this show. Yeah. My team and I did a deeper dive…
…with connected payment account required. See Experian.com for details. Experian. All right. I have been just overwhelmed by all this stuff I hear about AI.
…threatened to kill police officers. Judges made bomb threats and did harassment campaigns and tried to blackmail them for money to get them to stop.
…in the show a couple times, a country like the US, or Japan, or the UK, or the eurozone really they can't actually default because…
…to cover in Texas as we know the James Tallarico, Ken Paxton blue Texas possible big senator waste is coming up but as part of…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP