Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 9, 2026
On the Sep 9, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 7 of 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 7 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 38 | 38 | ✓ | 89%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 36 | 36 | ✓ | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 30 | 30 | ✓ | 87%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blue | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 54%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Red | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
28 matches for “China”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…look at where we're at in our media consumption environment and where China is at, which is ahead of us on this, whether the numbers…
China, which you mentioned, I think China's a little bit of a... I mean, there's an asterisk on it, right? Because they kind of hide…
…labels on... Oh, never mind. Switzerland. Okay, sorry. I needed my glasses. China. Bond market. China bond yields. super low i was gonna do a…
…therapy and he was given the advice to go do it in China instead because they will do it for only $300,000, about half of…
…now in complete remission. syrah ahmed from the anderson cancer center said china has basically done to car car t cell therapy the same thing…
Where the listed words were said
I had the exact same feel. You talked about Chinese micro dramas recently on this show. Yeah. My team and I did a deeper dive…
…with connected payment account required. See Experian.com for details. Experian. All right. I have been just overwhelmed by all this stuff I hear about AI.
…threatened to kill police officers. Judges made bomb threats and did harassment campaigns and tried to blackmail them for money to get them to stop.
…in the show a couple times, a country like the US, or Japan, or the UK, or the eurozone really they can't actually default because…
…to cover in Texas as we know the James Tallarico, Ken Paxton blue Texas possible big senator waste is coming up but as part of…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-09:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-09:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP