Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 2, 2026
On the Sep 2, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money | Yes | 60 | 60 | ✓ | 85%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 46 | 46 | ✓ | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 88%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
11 matches for “Policy”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…things like government shutdowns. Even if you live abroad, right? Americans foreign policy is heavily dictated by who is in the house and Senate at…
…she's a more moderate Democrat. Salmon run? Salmon Run is a small game to basically talk about the fishing policies that she thinks are important.
Okay. His policies are very, like, pro-industry, very pro-Trump. It's like, we need to keep developing more oil and natural resources. We've got to lower…
…campaigned with people who are either associated with it or have similar policies like Bernie Sanders or AOC. So, you know, the kind of mainstream…
…first place freedom from these donors will allow me to enforce antitrust policy tax billionaires and vote to keep money in Michigan rather than sending…
Where the listed words were said
…even though that is the case with executive orders, you can't spend money that Congress did not budget or appropriate, which is why things like…
Even in this time where Trump has kind of stacked the Supreme Court and we have a heavily Republican-leaning Supreme Court, there has been decisions…
done a bunch of blue collar work for decades he's like a retired teacher and worked in the forest service and this is dan oh…
…he has been there since 2015 and alaska traditionally is a very red state trump won alaska in the last presidential election by 13 okay…
…a national security risk to us. If all of of a sudden China comes in and bays Taiwan, they scoop up all these chips, we're…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-02:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-02:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP