Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 2, 2026

On the Sep 2, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.

Updated

Markets

8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Money Yes6060✓85%n=7 from settlement history–
Trump 10+ timesYes4646✓53%n=2 from settlement history–
Blue Yes1616✓57%n=10 from settlement history–
Red Yes1313✓57%n=10 from settlement history–
China / Chinese Yes33✓88%n=9 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ timesNo11✓70%n=2 from settlement history–
Japan No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Experimental No00✓37%n=2 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

quotes of at most 25 words

Machine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.

Machine-attributed. Speaker turns are labelled by a model, not the publisher.

60 matches for “Money”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.

Speaker not labelled7:31

…even though that is the case with executive orders, you can't spend money that Congress did not budget or appropriate, which is why things like…

Speaker not labelled9:30

…Where it's like we basically won. It was like basically done by 60 days. We're still spending money and fighting, but like it's basically won.

Speaker not labelled14:32

…lot of a focus on affordability, stopping corruption in D.C., getting more money to low-income Alaskans, cutting taxes for low-income Alaskans. So it's fairly like…

Speaker not labelled31:13

And it is an exploration of the quantity of dark money involved in our elections now and specifically the 2026 midterms right now. And for…

Speaker not labelled31:39

…groups that aren't obligated to disclose their donors that then send that money to super PACs or PACs that then donate it to actual political.

Where the listed words were said

Speaker not labelled“Money” · 32:30

…written by one of the justices mentioned that the transparency of how money is spent will be the self-regulating thing around why this is okay.

Speaker not labelled“Trump (10+)” · 7:53

Even in this time where Trump has kind of stacked the Supreme Court and we have a heavily Republican-leaning Supreme Court, there has been decisions…

Speaker not labelled“Blue” · 15:57

done a bunch of blue collar work for decades he's like a retired teacher and worked in the forest service and this is dan oh…

Speaker not labelled“Red” · 12:34

…he has been there since 2015 and alaska traditionally is a very red state trump won alaska in the last presidential election by 13 okay…

Speaker not labelled“China / Chinese” · 1:30:54

…a national security risk to us. If all of of a sudden China comes in and bays Taiwan, they scoop up all these chips, we're…

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-02:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-02:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP