Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 2, 2026
On the Sep 2, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money | Yes | 60 | 60 | ✓ | 85%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 46 | 46 | ✓ | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 88%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
5 matches for “Iran”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
But if they did, it would be a whole different, even the Iran war, like Congress can pass a thing that this needs to stop,…
…we need to keep developing more oil and natural resources. We've got to lower taxes. Supports Trump's tariffs and supports the Iran war pretty vocally.
…did I do that right? Something is wrong in my brain today. I ran out of it this week. He's the sick one. He must…
…Trump's approval numbers on the economy, on immigration, on the war in Iran. His numbers are worse than Bush's numbers in 2006 this time. And…
…of legislation that finally got passed under President Biden to further incentivize semiconductor chip production. My job in that, I ran external and government affairs.
Where the listed words were said
…even though that is the case with executive orders, you can't spend money that Congress did not budget or appropriate, which is why things like…
Even in this time where Trump has kind of stacked the Supreme Court and we have a heavily Republican-leaning Supreme Court, there has been decisions…
done a bunch of blue collar work for decades he's like a retired teacher and worked in the forest service and this is dan oh…
…he has been there since 2015 and alaska traditionally is a very red state trump won alaska in the last presidential election by 13 okay…
…guardrails protected over these chips, then like in 10 years from now, China is going to have our ass. It's like the only way I…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-02:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-02:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP