Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), September 2, 2026
On the Sep 2, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 5 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money | Yes | 60 | 60 | ✓ | 85%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 46 | 46 | ✓ | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Red | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 88%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
16 matches for “Blue”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
done a bunch of blue collar work for decades he's like a retired teacher and worked in the forest service and this is dan oh…
…matter. Really? But the thing is this Dan Sullivan, this retired teacher, blue collar guy is on the ballot as Republican Dan Sullivan next to…
Texas is about to flip. Blue Texas. Blue Texas is coming. They've been saying it for years, Atriot. They have been saying it for years.…
…has been a solid, solid red state. Both Senate seats have been blue for... Have been red. Sorry, red for like 30... I'm very dyslexic…
…unique race normally we would have a couple people get hyped all blue texas and then you'd look at the math and you'd say it's…
Where the listed words were said
…even though that is the case with executive orders, you can't spend money that Congress did not budget or appropriate, which is why things like…
Even in this time where Trump has kind of stacked the Supreme Court and we have a heavily Republican-leaning Supreme Court, there has been decisions…
We're like, oh, blue Texas. Like this looks pretty close. All the polling has it though, razor thin because you have to understand Texas is…
…he has been there since 2015 and alaska traditionally is a very red state trump won alaska in the last presidential election by 13 okay…
…a national security risk to us. If all of of a sudden China comes in and bays Taiwan, they scoop up all these chips, we're…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-09-02:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-09-02:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP