Lemonade Stand (Vox Media), August 26, 2026
On the Aug 26, 2026 episode of Lemonade Stand, 6 of the 8 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 8 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
8 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 43 | 43 | ✓ | 88%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 34 | 34 | ✓ | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | 21 | 21 | ✓ | 85%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 17 | 17 | ✓ | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Red | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Experimental | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · Lemonade Stand podcast audio (Vox Media), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
17 matches for “Trump”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…We're talking about Canada. It's very hard to make a deal with Trump that is reliable. No matter who's got the position of strength or…
idea that it's working. I don't think it's working quick enough for Trump's timeline, which is the midterms and what he wants to do. But…
…This was signed in 2020 by a certain president named Donald J. Trump, who said at the time, this is the greatest, fairest deal we've…
like the way that he's standing up to Trump. And then the worst criticism I heard was he has yet to deliver on a lot…
…consumption habits, what they're choosing to buy? From my grandfather's perspective, he finds the Trump changing his mind part to be particularly frustrating and chaotic.
Where the listed words were said
…this for 47 years, what option is left? And the option is China, basically, because they're the one that is really financially underpinning Iran's ability…
and it's a i don't know it's a frustrating experience you know what never changes what never changes answer cells i don't think famously isn't…
…seemingly having an effect. Now they've already banked a lot of extra money because of all the oil they exported earlier that was at higher…
…U S under any circumstances, even to visit like my immediate family that does live in the U S won't buy American products, hates Trump.
…is majority made in China or if you include South Korea and Japan. We almost have none of it in America. Tesla, I've maligned them…
…really getting hit by this because in 2019, when they lifted the restriction, a private equity group got a huge chunk of the Red Sox.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/lemonade-stand:2026-08-26:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=lemonade-stand:2026-08-26:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP