Shopify (SHOP): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Aug 5, 2026
On its Aug 5, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Shopify said 5 of the 14 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offline | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Service | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 92%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Acquired / Acquisition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 89%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 72%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Meta | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Microsoft 2+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Headwind | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Amazon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stablecoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Repurchase / Buyback | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shopify Capital | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Klarna | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
13 matches for “Shop Pay”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…app GMV in this quarter. That is the value of known buyers. Shop Pay is where that trust and identity show up in conversion. In…
…payment methods for buyers. Doing this helps eliminate reasons for buyers to ever abandon their checkout, creating better conversion. Shop Pay GMV grew 53% year-over-year.
…payment method availability means fewer drop-offs to guest checkout and helps drive Shop Pay usage. Shop Pay also allows buyers to choose to finance their…
…Shopify may not make sense just yet." That's where these things like Shop Pay as a commerce component really plays a great role. We'll say…
…effectively a ton of different on-ramps into Shopify. The reason that the Shop Pay commerce component is so effective to us is because it's an…
Where the listed words were said
…available to merchants in Canada and the U.K. Now let's talk about offline. Shopify point of sale GMV grew 32% year-over-year in Q2. We continue…
This model will continue to service even better in this new agentic era of commerce. Let's talk more about Shopify's infrastructure, specifically what we've been…
…basis-point improvement year-over-year, even as we funded additional dollars into our merchant acquisition efforts. R&D, the majority of our internal AI spend is allocated here,…
…new gear. Some of the largest technology companies in the world, like OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, have chosen to partner with us to open…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/shopify:2026-08-05:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=shopify:2026-08-05:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP