Shopify (SHOP): FY26 Q1 earnings call, May 5, 2026
On its May 5, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Shopify said 7 of the 10 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
10 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Service | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 88%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shop Pay | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Acquired / Acquisition | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 89%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Headwind | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 86%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Amazon | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 35%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 67%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Repurchase / Buyback | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 34%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shopify Capital | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Klarna | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
1 match for “OpenAI”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…the pricing is accurate, there's real-time inventory, clean attributes, and, you know, OpenAI and Microsoft are already using the Catalog to power discovery. I think…
Where the listed words were said
…added in Q1, including ChatGPT, Pinterest, and Microsoft Monetize, we're bringing more services and more reach and more buyers into the ecosystem. Here's another example…
…the full platform, not just the checkout moment. Then, of course, there's Shop Pay, the internet's favorite checkout, because we believe it is simply the…
…brand that launched on Shopify in 2023, well, last month, they were acquired by Unilever for over $1 billion. In just over two years, they…
…today, and continued Shop Pay momentum. Near term, Europe will be a headwind to global payments penetration metrics given the recent launches of payments in…
Last month, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Stripe all joined the council, committing their expertise in internet scale transaction processing to build one Universal Commerce…
…growth, which allows us to do everything we need to, and obviously have the US dollar left to do the share repurchase, among other things.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/shopify:2026-05-05:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=shopify:2026-05-05:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP