JPMorgan (JPM): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Apr 14, 2026

Tue, Apr 14Earnings callSpeaker-labelled transcriptJPMorgan

On its Apr 14, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), JPMorgan said 8 of the 15 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.

Updated

Markets

15 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityClipMarket
Private Credit Yes1119✓83%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcriptsHear it 20:30, Private Credit–
Trading Yes69✓82%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcriptsHear it 16:51, Trading–
M&A / Merger Yes44✓63%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 7:44, M&A / Merger–
Recession Yes34✓70%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcriptsHear it 21:06, Recession–
Buyback Yes23✓77%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcriptsHear it 58:37, Buyback–
Basel 3 Yes23✓53%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 2:03, Basel 3–
Regulation Yes11✓76%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcriptsHear it 57:11, Regulation–
Geopolitical Yes11✓49%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcriptsHear it 23:24, Geopolitical–
Inflation No00✓83%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts–
Hiring No00✓67%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts–
Tariff No00✓67%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts–
Fintech No00✓59%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts–
Credit Card No00✓58%transcripts from the transcript model–
Crypto / Bitcoin No00✓40%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts–
Blockchain No00✓35%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

quotes of at most 25 words

Speaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.

42 matches for “Risk”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.

Jeremy Barnumcompanyprepared · 1:59Hear it 1:53, Jeremy Barnum

…effects, and higher energy prices, which resulted in higher RWA across market risk and credit risk ex lending. Now, let me spend a few minutes…

Jeremy Barnumcompanyprepared · 4:24Hear it 4:18, Jeremy Barnum

…over the next two years simply as a result of recent growth in the system, despite, in our view, no change in real-world systemic risk.

Jeremy Barnumcompanyprepared · 4:46Hear it 4:40, Jeremy Barnum

…represent about $13 billion, while in the process, making the methodology less risk-sensitive and less consistent with the Fed's original rationale for including it. This…

Steven Chubakanalystqa · 13:25Hear it 13:19, Steven Chubak

…see from the removal of some of the double counting of markets or operational risk? I recognize that piece is a little bit more opaque.

Jeremy Barnumcompanyqa · 15:56Hear it 15:52, Jeremy Barnum

…any impact. If the double count is addressed by modifying the operational risk calculation in RWA, then it might have some impact. Obviously, it's far…

Where the listed words were said

Jamie Dimoncompany“Private Credit” · qa · 20:32Hear it 20:32, Jamie Dimon

…was quite clear. I don't think so. I gave the big numbers. Private credit leveraged lending is like $1.7 trillion. High yield bonds are something…

Jamie Dimoncompany“Trading” · qa · 16:53Hear it 16:49, Jamie Dimon

…We already have $80 billion or $90 billion of capital for the trading books. Those numbers just, they're completely out of whack with reality. Operational…

Jeremy Barnumcompany“M&A / Merger” · prepared · 7:46Hear it 7:40, Jeremy Barnum

…color, IB fees were up 28% year-on-year, driven by strong performance across M&A and equity underwriting, partially offset by lower debt underwriting. Looking ahead, client…

Jamie Dimoncompany“Recession” · qa · 21:08Hear it 21:08, Jamie Dimon

…almost can't be systemic at that size relative to anything else. When recessions happen and values go down and people refi at higher rates, there'll…

Jamie Dimoncompany“Buyback” · qa · 58:39Hear it 58:36, Jamie Dimon

…We're doing it, fair market value and all that, but I'd rather buy back stock when we think it's a real discount, and the ongoing…

Jeremy Barnumcompany“Basel 3” · prepared · 5:12Hear it 5:06, Jeremy Barnum

…current 4.5% requirement, which when combined with the RWA increase from the Basel III Endgame NPR, results in a total increase of about $20 billion…

Jamie Dimoncompany“Regulation” · qa · 57:13Hear it 57:09, Jamie Dimon

…around $40 billion. Obviously, that can change depending on ultimate rules and regulations. We prefer to deploy the capital serving clients. The way you see…

Jeremy Barnumcompany“Geopolitical” · qa · 23:26Hear it 23:20, Jeremy Barnum

…our historical stance about wanting to be conservative and concerns about the geopolitical dynamics. A couple things in there. One, as you know, we start…

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/jpmorgan:2026-04-14:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=jpmorgan:2026-04-14:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP