Will JPMorgan say “Geopolitical”?
JPMorgan did not say “Geopolitical” on its Oct 13, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, JPMorgan said “Geopolitical” on 2 of 5 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 14, 2025 (40%), most recently on Apr 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=5, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 33¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JPMorgan
Geopolitical
- Probability
- 32% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last calls
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…our historical stance about wanting to be conservative and concerns about the geopolitical dynamics. A couple things in there. One, as you know, we start…
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…But the backdrop is also important, but the time tables are different. Geopolitical is an enormous amount of risk. I don't have to go through…
…backdrop unveil in 2026 for the banking industry. And how you're considering, the risks, whether it's executive overreach or the geopolitical, situation at the moment.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…the issues that are raised existed before the new administration, like the geopolitical situation, the excess fiscal deficits, poorly done regulations and all of that.…
…help mitigate some of the volatility in the 10-year. But given the geopolitical concerns, weakening global demand for treasuries, how does it inform your appetite…
Not counted under the usual rule (company speakers + operator); this word was not listed here.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Geopolitical |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Geopolitical | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Geopolitical | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Geopolitical |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Geopolitical | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Geopolitical | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How many times did JPMorgan say “Geopolitical” on its last earnings call?
- JPMorgan did not say “Geopolitical” on its Oct 13, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 times.
- How often does JPMorgan say “Geopolitical”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JPMorgan said “Geopolitical” on 2 of 5 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 14, 2025 (40%), most recently on Apr 14, 2026.
- What is the probability JPMorgan says “Geopolitical” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “JPMorgan: ‘Geopolitical’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/JPM/words/geopolitical (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jpmorgan&word=geopolitical · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jpmorgan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP