Will JPMorgan say “Recession”?
JPMorgan did not say “Recession” on its Oct 13, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 8, 0, 0, 1, 3, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, JPMorgan said “Recession” on 2 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 14, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=4, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JPMorgan
Recession
- Probability
- 44% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last calls
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
3 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…almost can't be systemic at that size relative to anything else. When recessions happen and values go down and people refi at higher rates, there'll…
…world, you got to look at what's going to happen in a recession. I'm not forecasting anything. I'm simply saying, for JPMorgan, we have to…
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…instances of fraud-like problems or as a result of a particularly deep recession erodes all the credit enhancement. In that scenario, losses associated with traditional…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
8 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 8 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…they're looking at their forecast today. They think it's about 50-50 for recession, so I'll just refer to that. Obviously, if there's a recession, credit…
…took down the $15 billion. So that just sizes up a bad recession. If it's a mild recession, it will be less than that. If…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How many times did JPMorgan say “Recession” on its last earnings call?
- JPMorgan did not say “Recession” on its Oct 13, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 8, 0, 0, 1, 3, 0, 0 times.
- How often does JPMorgan say “Recession”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JPMorgan said “Recession” on 2 of 4 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 14, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 14, 2026.
- What is the probability JPMorgan says “Recession” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “JPMorgan: ‘Recession’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/JPM/words/recession (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jpmorgan&word=recession · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jpmorgan&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP