Face the Nation (CBS), February 15, 2026
On the Feb 15, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 8 of the 11 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 11 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
11 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 11- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / Border | Yes | 6 | 36 | ✓ | 67%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 5 | 13 | ✓ | 75%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 3 | 19 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 3 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 2 | 10 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unconstitutional / Constitution / Constitutional | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kristi / Noem | Yes | 2 | 8 | ✓ | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 1 | 7 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Body Cam / Body Camera | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Indict / Indicted / Indictment | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 0 | 13 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
…and Alex Pretti. We know and the American people clearly know that ICE is totally out of control and they need to be reined in,…
…here unlawfully, as opposed to violently targeting law-abiding immigrant families, which is completely inconsistent with what Donald Trump promised the American people he would do.
… in advance of it. Well, here's the thing. The administration and Republicans have made a clear decision that they would rather shut down FEMA,…
…their constitutional rights, their freedom of assembly and their freedom of speech and their freedom of expression peacefully, as we saw overwhelmingly done in Minneapolis.
…is exclusively given to Congress in Article I of the United States Constitution. Now, the American people want Donald Trump and Republicans to actually keep…
…criminally prosecute anyone who has violated the law, because we cannot trust Kristi Noem or Pam Bondi to conduct an independent investigation. We believe that…
Well, if the election were held today, we're taking back control of the House of Representatives, and I'm not convinced that it would necessarily be…
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