Elon Musk: World Economic Forum, Jan 23, 2026
At the keynote on Jan 23, 2026, Elon Musk said 5 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 11 of 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 11 | 12 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Optimus | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starlink | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Grok / xAI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · World Economic Forum (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
1 match for “Optimus”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…quickly. I think uh we we we do have some the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. Um we expect it it…
Where the listed words were said
…be producing more chips than we can turn on. Ex- except for China. China China's China's growth in electricity is is tremendous. They're building 100…
Uh yes, the Tesla full self-driving software we we update it sometimes once a week. Um and um recently [clears throat] some of the insurance…
…is As it is in China. Well, unfortunately in in the US the the the tariff barriers for solar are are extremely high [clears throat]
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/elon-musk:2026-01-23:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=elon-musk:2026-01-23:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP