Will Elon Musk say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Tariff” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Jan 22, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Tariff
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is As it is in China. Well, unfortunately in in the US the the the tariff barriers for solar are are extremely high [clears throat]
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Tariff |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Tariff”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Tariff” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Tariff” next time?
- 63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP