Will Elon Musk say “Robotaxi”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Robotaxi” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Jan 22, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 49¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Robotaxi
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Robotaxi |  Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Robotaxi”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Robotaxi” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Robotaxi” next time?
- 63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Robotaxi’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/robotaxi (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=robotaxi · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP