FedEx (FDX): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Dec 18, 2025
On its Dec 18, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q2), FedEx said 6 of the 12 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smith | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 40%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Guidance | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 80%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| De Minimis | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 58%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Truck | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| E-commerce / Ecommerce | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 89%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Labor | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| EV / Electric Vehicle | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
8 matches for “Global trade”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…constraints, weakness in the industrial economy, and, of course, the impact of global trade policy changes. We're extremely pleased with our Q2 performance, especially in…
…optimization, along with the power of a resilient industrial network. Both shifting global trade patterns and the unexpected grounding of our MD-11 fleet required significant…
…and B2B segments which is helping to offset the headwinds created by global trade policy changes. Our European operations teams have done an outstanding job…
…We expect second-half international export ADV to remain pressured due to the global trade environment with a partial offset from yield. At FEC, the midpoint…
…We grew adjusted operating income by $231 million despite the headwind from global trade policy changes, higher variable incentive compensation accruals, weaker than expected LTL…
Where the listed words were said
…hosting an Investor Day in New York City on April 8. John Smith and his team look forward to unveiling for you FedEx Freight's forward-looking…
…thanks for taking the question. Johnny, you just covered a lot in guidance there, and I'm sure we'll have plenty of questions on it. But…
…driven by revenue quality action, higher weight per shipment tied to the de minimis change, plus favorable currency. At FedEx Freight, revenue per shipment increased…
…opportunistically purchased nearly $300 million worth of stock which alongside our increased dividend payout demonstrates our commitment to returning cash to stockholders. We have $1.3…
…answer any question regarding what might or might not happen on the tariff front. You know, any international volume increase, obviously, is beneficial. But we're…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/fedex:2025-12-18:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=fedex:2025-12-18:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP