FedEx (FDX): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Dec 18, 2025
On its Dec 18, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q2), FedEx said 6 of the 12 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smith | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 40%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Guidance | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 80%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| De Minimis | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 58%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Truck | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| E-commerce / Ecommerce | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 89%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Labor | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| EV / Electric Vehicle | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
31 matches for “Cost”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…years and the resulting transformation from network to auto Tricolor, and structural cost reductions, all enabled by data and technology. We're demonstrating the resilience and…
…1, we implemented a fuel surcharge adjustment to partially mitigate the added cost required to maintaining high-quality service for our customers. And we expect strong…
…margin by 100 basis points. This was driven by higher yields, continued cost reduction efforts, and increased U.S. Domestic package volume. These drivers were partially…
…environment changes. In this scenario, for FEC volume-related revenue, net of variable cost, we now expect a $500 million tailwind. This marks a $100 million…
…offset by $1 billion in transformation-related savings. We're pleased with our year-to-date cost reduction progress and are on track to achieve the billion dollars savings…
Where the listed words were said
…hosting an Investor Day in New York City on April 8. John Smith and his team look forward to unveiling for you FedEx Freight's forward-looking…
…thanks for taking the question. Johnny, you just covered a lot in guidance there, and I'm sure we'll have plenty of questions on it. But…
…driven by revenue quality action, higher weight per shipment tied to the de minimis change, plus favorable currency. At FedEx Freight, revenue per shipment increased…
…opportunistically purchased nearly $300 million worth of stock which alongside our increased dividend payout demonstrates our commitment to returning cash to stockholders. We have $1.3…
…answer any question regarding what might or might not happen on the tariff front. You know, any international volume increase, obviously, is beneficial. But we're…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/fedex:2025-12-18:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=fedex:2025-12-18:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP