JPMorgan (JPM): FY25 Q3 earnings call, Oct 14, 2025
On its Oct 14, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q3), JPMorgan said 7 of the 14 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | 7 | 9 | ✓ | 58%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 6:13, Inflation | – |
| Buyback | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 76%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 18:46, Buyback | – |
| Private Credit | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 69%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 14:49, Private Credit | – |
| M&A | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 76%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 48:42, M&A | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 71%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 40:58, Tariff | – |
| Trading | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 72%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 37:40, Trading | – |
| Hiring | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 32%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 21:42, Hiring | – |
| Regulation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 72%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Recession | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 61%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Fintech | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Geopolitical | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Coinbase | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “Margin”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Wealth Management, AWM reported net income of $1.7 billion with a pretax margin of 36%. Record revenue of $6.1 billion was up 12% year on…
…on the factors that we have just gone through. And so the margin, that kind of upward inflection point has been pushed out a little…
…performing differently from the public deals. It probably is true at the margin, that some of the new direct lending initiatives involve underwriting at slightly…
…add another high trillion dollars of this type of lending at the margin. That is the type of RWA growth that consumes excess. And obviously,…
…very hard thing to do. Hard to prove and might at the margin result in people scrambling around to use AI in ways that actually…
Where the listed words were said
…look at the fourth quarter and adjust for seasonality, and expected labor inflation as well as adding some growth, the consensus of about $100 billion…
…above thing. Obviously, we are not going to give forward guidance on buybacks or dividend policy. But as you know, yes, we are generating a…
…regulated perimeter. But we have also acknowledged that a lot of the private credit actors are large, very sophisticated, very good at credit underwriting. So…
…the meantime, as you know, we are starting to see more M and A activity as well. I noted earlier, I think it was busiest…
…whether it is labor or goods and services, not to get into tariffs or whatever, that is a factor that applies to our entire cost…
…have said for years, GSIB, CCAR, operational risk capital, double counting of trading book, I mean it is just wrong. And some of these numbers…
…market in this moment of what people are describing as a low hiring, low firing moment. You can think of that as potentially explained by…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/jpmorgan:2025-10-14:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=jpmorgan:2025-10-14:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP