Sam Altman: Keynote, Jul 22, 2025
At the keynote on Jul 22, 2025, Sam Altman said 5 of the 20 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 19 of 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 19 of 20- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk | Yes | 7 | 9 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 3 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ChatGPT | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cybersecurity | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulation | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Innovation | No | 1 | 8 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Artificial General Intelligence / AGI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Capital | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Competition | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Compliance | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DeepSeek | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Efficiency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Infrastructure | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Privacy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safety | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stargate | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supervision | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transparency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Associated Press (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
5 matches for “Fraud”; 3 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Um, I am very nervous that we have an impending significant impending fraud crisis because of this. Um, we have tried I think other people…
…teaching people how to authenticate in a world like that, how to think about, you know, the the fraud impact. This is a huge deal.
financial advice to detect fraud better to underwrite risk better. Um again watching what watching what is possible now um makes me very optimistic in…
Where the listed words were said
…technology. we've got to put some new controls on it. But the risk of us not doing this um if we if we don't adopt…
…goes down this list and he basically had this business running on chat GPT. This was before it was a common thing. This is before…
…Um and I think that the bio capability of these models the cyber security capability of these models these are getting quite significant. You know…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/sam-altman:2025-07-22:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=sam-altman:2025-07-22:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP