Will Ken Griffin say “Iran”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Ken Griffin said “Iran” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 14, 2026.
Of the last 2 keynotes we have transcripts for (Nov 7, 2025 – Apr 14, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Ken Griffin
Iran
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 2 keynotes
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
9 counted; 7 by speakers the rule does not count.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Iran |  Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
Questions
- How often does Ken Griffin say “Iran”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Ken Griffin said “Iran” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Ken Griffin says “Iran” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Ken Griffin: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/ken-griffin/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=ken-griffin&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=ken-griffin&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP