Ken Griffin: Semafor World Economy 2026, Apr 14, 2026
At the keynote on Apr 14, 2026, Ken Griffin said 6 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. The transcript is searchable below (quotes of at most 25 words).
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | 12 | 46 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 11 | 27 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | 9 | 16 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Europe / European | Yes | 4 | 72 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 3 | 59 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | 1 | 13 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Dream | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Miami | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gold | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Semafor (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
None of the listed words was said under the market rules.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/ken-griffin:2026-04-14:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=ken-griffin:2026-04-14:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP