Will Donald Trump say “Israel / Jerusalem”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel / Jerusalem” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 26, 2026.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Israel / Jerusalem
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 2 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I don't think so. Abraham Lincoln, I met a young man from Israel. I said, "Who's your favorite president?" He said, "Abraham Lincoln." I said,…
On Israel/Iran, can you fill us in on what Secretary Hegseth spoke about with Prime Minister Netanyahu?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Israel / Jerusalem |  Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Israel / Jerusalem”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel / Jerusalem” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 26, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Israel / Jerusalem” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Israel / Jerusalem’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/israel-or-jerusalem (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=israel%20%2F%20jerusalem · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP