Will Donald Trump say “Aluminum / Smelter”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Aluminum / Smelter” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 24, 2026.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 3 later rallies without a transcript yet (since Oct 26, 2026) are not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Aluminum / Smelter
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a lot of things right. But, you know, we have copper and aluminum. Henry knows this. Steel. And we came we're we the steel industry…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Aluminum / Smelter |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Aluminum / Smelter”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Aluminum / Smelter” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Aluminum / Smelter” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Aluminum / Smelter’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/aluminum-or-smelter (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=aluminum%20%2F%20smelter · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP