What is the probability Stephen A. Smith says “2028 / Campaign” next time?

30%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Stephen A. Smith say “2028 / Campaign”?

Name: Stephen A. Smith: “2028 / Campaign” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Stephen A. Smith said “2028 / Campaign” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

30%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 17:02 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Stephen A. Smith

2028 / Campaign

Probability: 30% · n=4
Settled: 1/4 (25%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Stephen A. Smith yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Stephen A. Smith say during NewsNation: Cuomo? · settled no

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What will Stephen A. Smith say during ESPN: First Take? · settled no

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What will Stephen A. Smith say during his NewsNation interview? · settled yes

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What will Stephen A. Smith say during his NewsNation interview? · settled no

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What will Stephen A. Smith say on Tonight's CUOMO Town Hall: The First 100 Days? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Jul 22, 2026	2028 / Campaign	Kalshi	No
May 8, 2026	2028 / Campaign	Kalshi	No
Mar 17, 2026	2028 / Campaign	Kalshi	Yes
Mar 5, 2026	2028 / Campaign	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often does Stephen A. Smith say “2028 / Campaign”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Stephen A. Smith said “2028 / Campaign” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 17, 2026.
What is the probability Stephen A. Smith says “2028 / Campaign” next time?: 30%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Stephen A. Smith: ‘2028 / Campaign’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/sports/stephen-a-smith/words/2028-or-campaign (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=stephen-a-smith&word=2028%20%2F%20campaign · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=stephen-a-smith&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP