What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Victory” next time?

40%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Victory”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Victory” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Victory” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Nov 6, 2025.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 15:30 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Victory

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…concerns that ring true for New Yorkers, and I think that his victory and the victory of Democrats across this country is of critical importance…

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…to reinvest in Israel bonds? And do you view that as a victory of your position or your effort to reshape the city's relationship with…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.