What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Student” next time?

46%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Student”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Student” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Student” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 10, 2026.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 08:20 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Student

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Comptroller LevineotherMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…low-income themselves and struggling now. And this expansion will give them more students and will give them larger contracts that reflect the fact that they…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…of quantum innovation, offering researchers, professors, startups, companies and more than 5,000 students the resources they need to take these breakthroughs to the next level.…