What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “New York / New Yorker 12+ times” next time?

47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “New York / New Yorker” 12+ times?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “New York / New Yorker 12+ times” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “New York / New Yorker” 12+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Sep 6, 2025.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (12+, named speaker only) in 5.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 21:14 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

New York / New Yorker 12+ times

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 5 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

…to start with a dear friend who is the speaker of the New York State Assembly, Carl Heastie, who is here. We have our state…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…work that you do every single day. It is work that keeps New Yorkers safe; it is work that keeps New Yorkers alive; it is…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

Good morning, my fellow New Yorkers! Thank you very much. You're very kind.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…after decade, scientific greatness has been imagined, pursued and achieved here in New York City. In 1931, in a basement uptown at Columbia University, chemist…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

…Commissioner Tisch and NYPD leadership as we remember 42 members of the New York City Police Department who gave their lives in service to this…