What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Muslim / Jewish” next time?

35%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Muslim / Jewish”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Muslim / Jewish” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Muslim / Jewish” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Sep 6, 2025.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 22:36 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Muslim / Jewish

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

I meet with Jewish leaders, some of whom agree with me, some of whom have criticisms, and frankly, the meeting is never contingent upon agreement.…

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…traitor. Your statement issued yesterday morning seemed to anger many in the Jewish community. What do you make of that conflict that seems to be…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.