What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Islam / Islamic / Ramadan” next time?

27%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Islam / Islamic / Ramadan”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Islam / Islamic / Ramadan” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 28, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Islam / Islamic / Ramadan” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

27%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 28, 2026, 18:16 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Islam / Islamic / Ramadan

Probability: 27% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

One of the officers we honor today, Detective Didarul Islam, carried that courage to his final breath. Last year, in the midst of the most…