Will Mike Pence say “National Security”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Mike Pence did not say “National Security” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
32%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mike Pence
National Security
- Probability
- 32% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Mike Pence yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | National Security |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 23, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 8, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Mike Pence say “National Security”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Mike Pence did not say “National Security” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Mike Pence says “National Security” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mike Pence: ‘National Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-pence/words/national-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mike-pence&word=national%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mike-pence&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP