Mike Pence: Panel, Jun 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Mike Pence say during his conversation with Robert Costa?
Markets
17 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Common Sense | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| January 6 / J6 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| RINO | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26JUN15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP