Meet the Press: Episode, May 31, 2026
Kalshi What will Mike Pence say during Meet the Press?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMTPMENTION-26MAY31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP