Will Mike Pence say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Mike Pence said “Iran / Iranian” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 23, 2026 (100%), most recently on May 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mike Pence
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 48% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Mike Pence yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Mike Pence say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Mike Pence said “Iran / Iranian” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 23, 2026 (100%), most recently on May 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Mike Pence says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mike Pence: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-pence/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mike-pence&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mike-pence&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP