James Fishback: Press conference, Aug 6, 2026
Kalshi What will James Fishback say during his Press Conference?
Markets
11 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Whistleblower | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DeSantis | No | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AIPAC | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Debate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26AUG06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP