Will James Fishback say “Israel / Israeli”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, James Fishback said “Israel / Israeli” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
James Fishback
Israel / Israeli
- Probability
- 32% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for James Fishback yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Israel / Israeli |  Kalshi | No |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does James Fishback say “Israel / Israeli”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, James Fishback said “Israel / Israeli” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability James Fishback says “Israel / Israeli” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “James Fishback: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/james-fishback/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=james-fishback&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=james-fishback&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP