James Fishback: Debate, Jul 2, 2026
Kalshi What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeSantis | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DEI / Woke | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Property Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Abort / Aborted / Abortion | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Data Center | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AIPAC | No | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Benjamin / Netanyahu | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| OnlyFans | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Teen Takeover | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trans / Transgender | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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