What is the probability Jack Smith says “Tax” next time?

47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Name: Jack Smith: “Tax” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jack Smith did not say “Tax” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 23:17 UTC

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Jack Smith

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Jack Smith yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Jack Smith say during MS NOW: Deadline White House? · not listed

What will Jack Smith say during the testimony on his Trump investigations? · settled no

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Jan 23, 2026	Tax	Kalshi	No

How often does Jack Smith say “Tax”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Jack Smith did not say “Tax” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.
What is the probability Jack Smith says “Tax” next time?: 47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jack Smith: ‘Tax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jack-smith/words/tax (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jack-smith&word=tax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jack-smith&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP