Will Jack Smith say “Insurrection”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jack Smith said “Insurrection” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Jan 22, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jack Smith
Insurrection
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Jack Smith yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Insurrection |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jack Smith say “Insurrection”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jack Smith said “Insurrection” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Jack Smith says “Insurrection” next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jack Smith: ‘Insurrection’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jack-smith/words/insurrection (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jack-smith&word=insurrection · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jack-smith&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP