Jack Smith: Interview, Jul 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Jack Smith say during MS NOW: Deadline White House?
Markets
12 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| January 6 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Indict / Indicted / Indictment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reasonable Doubt | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Classified | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mike Pence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26JUL02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP